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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #121
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
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    Seattle area
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    453

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    Quote Originally Posted by Croc View Post
    I would be careful with all the projections being thrown around. As someone who has to live and breathe statistical models for a career, they are all wrong. There are too many unknown variables which individually are alone enough to make the projected end results materially wrong. The key inputs to the model we are missing? Real count of infected people. There are a lot of people infected who have never been tested and we will never know until we test everyone. A lot of people infected early on just recovered. A lot of people early on did not but died of "other" causes. The exponential growth rates flatten out eventually as the disease finds its low hanging fruit of easy infections.

    I lived in Hong Kong through SARs. That scared me with its 10% death rate. COVID-19 does not. COVID-19 looks to me to have a real death rate much lower than 1% once all the statistical error corrections are factored in. One of my wonderful employees, clearly demonstrating his lack of productivity to his boss, developed his own COVID-19 model intended to calculate an individual person's mortality using all the relevant variables. He was pleased as punch to tell me I have a 1 in 435 chance of dying from COVID-19, paragon of virtuous health that I am. His mortality probability was likely higher given I was quite stressed that day. Its a good statistical quant model too but still excludes a bunch of qualitative factors. Still thats really good betting odds in my insurance world. However, there is a lot we don't know so we should be cautious - social distancing, society lockdowns, etc - make sense to slow things down as not everyone is as good looking and healthy as me.

    Anyway, the bigger issue is not really being discussed intelligently. When do our political leaders decide the cost of economic damage is greater than the population 'cost' (i.e. deaths) of the infections, and so restart the economy before the pandemic is over? My modeled bet that is somewhere around July based on when the second liquidity crunch kicks in for the current lot of businesses operating but impaired. Our strength as a country comes from being tightly integrated and strong as an economy. At some point the loss of strength in the economy becomes a bigger risk to the population (e.g. societal breakdown, critical supply shortage, cash shortages, rising disease/mortality risks from other causes) and so you have to make the call - which is worse? The pandemic is going to continue on into 2021 until we are all infected or a vaccine/cure has been developed and rolled out to 5 billion people. Its analogous to a war decision - you know people are going to die, whats the best way to limit that?

    Ok - time to post some car ads...
    Wow, a well thought out rational analysis. Haven't seen enough of those.
    2012 CSR 260, registered as a 1966 Super 7

    Still in the massive grin stage. Damn bugs!

  2. #122
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Arkansas and . . .
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    3,638

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    Quote Originally Posted by wemtd View Post
    Thanks mike - sounds like you need to take shelter in your garage...
    I tried to talk Croc into sheltering at the Garage Mahal...said there was no food.
    Stalker V8, chassis #85

    Stalker Chassis #85 Build Gallery
    Stalker Chassis #85 Owner Thread

    Get up in the morning and give the day your very best. You donít get it back.

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    584

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    Quote Originally Posted by Croc View Post
    I would be careful with all the projections being thrown around. As someone who has to live and breathe statistical models for a career, they are all wrong. There are too many unknown variables which individually are alone enough to make the projected end results materially wrong. The key inputs to the model we are missing? Real count of infected people. There are a lot of people infected who have never been tested and we will never know until we test everyone. A lot of people infected early on just recovered. A lot of people early on did not but died of "other" causes. The exponential growth rates flatten out eventually as the disease finds its low hanging fruit of easy infections.

    I lived in Hong Kong through SARs. That scared me with its 10% death rate. COVID-19 does not. COVID-19 looks to me to have a real death rate much lower than 1% once all the statistical error corrections are factored in. One of my wonderful employees, clearly demonstrating his lack of productivity to his boss, developed his own COVID-19 model intended to calculate an individual person's mortality using all the relevant variables. He was pleased as punch to tell me I have a 1 in 435 chance of dying from COVID-19, paragon of virtuous health that I am. His mortality probability was likely higher given I was quite stressed that day. Its a good statistical quant model too but still excludes a bunch of qualitative factors. Still thats really good betting odds in my insurance world. However, there is a lot we don't know so we should be cautious - social distancing, society lockdowns, etc - make sense to slow things down as not everyone is as good looking and healthy as me.

    Anyway, the bigger issue is not really being discussed intelligently. When do our political leaders decide the cost of economic damage is greater than the population 'cost' (i.e. deaths) of the infections, and so restart the economy before the pandemic is over? My modeled bet that is somewhere around July based on when the second liquidity crunch kicks in for the current lot of businesses operating but impaired. Our strength as a country comes from being tightly integrated and strong as an economy. At some point the loss of strength in the economy becomes a bigger risk to the population (e.g. societal breakdown, critical supply shortage, cash shortages, rising disease/mortality risks from other causes) and so you have to make the call - which is worse? The pandemic is going to continue on into 2021 until we are all infected or a vaccine/cure has been developed and rolled out to 5 billion people. Its analogous to a war decision - you know people are going to die, whats the best way to limit that?

    Ok - time to post some car ads...
    I wasn't even looking at number of infected or trying to get a final death tally, but just trying to see for myself if the 100K-200K projection could be anywhere near real - keep in mind, those numbers were projected a week ago. So I made a simple model to "ballpark it". I focused solely on number of deaths using published CDC numbers as the only data source (which I had already been tracking day-to-day) to derive my own determination of whether the 100K-200K death count was possible, and if so, an approximation of when that might occur. Assuming one believes the CDC numbers to be reasonably accurate, and they appear to be conservative figures comparatively, then yes, the 100K-200K projection does appear to be readily achievable.

    I'm continuing to watch these numbers, looking for the rate to begin and maintain its decline. I remain optimistic that happy day will come soon. Until then, beer, bikinis, and humor will have to do.
    Sean

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
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    Arkansas and . . .
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    Name:  CB66A4CF-2F27-42E1-A6BF-240560277C6F.jpg
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    Stalker V8, chassis #85

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    Get up in the morning and give the day your very best. You donít get it back.

  5. #125
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
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    426

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    Quote Originally Posted by scannon View Post
    If you haven't watched it, it's too late:

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  6. #126
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Erie, CO
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    4,067

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    I just pulled it up and she is still F bombing away.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMBh-eo3tvE&app=desktop
    Skip
    Gone but not forgotten: 2004 Caterham SV: http://www.britishv8.org/Other/SkipCannon.htm

  7. #127
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    Aug 2007
    Location
    USA
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    Was leaving a store last week, and I commented to the cashier that not long ago, he might fear for his life if someone walked into the store wearing a mask, and now he might fear the same if they’re not.
    Sean

  8. #128
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    Jul 2009
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    Arkansas and . . .
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    Name:  2C917A2B-216E-4AC5-9C2C-DFF2FA2F2653.jpg
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    Stalker V8, chassis #85

    Stalker Chassis #85 Build Gallery
    Stalker Chassis #85 Owner Thread

    Get up in the morning and give the day your very best. You donít get it back.

  9. #129
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    426

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    Quick, people, add more posts till that last one goes to another page.

  10. #130
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Seattle-ish
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    1,339

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    Sadly there are some things in life you just can't unsee...

    -John
    '95 Westfield SEiW w/2.0L Duratec
    '68 Lotus Elan FHC
    '91 Miata w/Flyin Miata suspension & brakes
    '95 Porsche 993 C2
    '86 Porsche 944 turbo (neglected project car)
    Throttle Steer

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