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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #111
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    Default Scary math

    I've been checking the CDC web pages daily for the last 10-12 days and noticed a distinctive trend: the number of COVID-19 deaths reported there doubles about every 4 days. As of a few minutes ago, CDC shows 6,593 deaths from this crap in the USA to date. Which means unless the death rate can be slowed, we're on track to tally 200,000 USA deaths right about 3 weeks from today. Not trying to be alarmist or anything; that's just the cold reality of the current situation. Let's hope the measures in place and any others that may be enacted in the next few weeks are effective enough to ramp down the death rate.

    Sorry to be so morbid, but I've overheard a lot of debate recently about the 100K-200K projections on USA death toll, and decided to do the math for myself. I almost wish I hadn't.

    REF:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
    CDC doesn't chart the day-to-day changes of the rate, but we'll know the trend has continued if the tally reaches 13,200+ by Wednesday of next week.
    Sean

  2. #112
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    Oct 2006
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    Default

    Your math is accurate Sean. But, why stop at 3 weeks? If you add another 3 weeks to that, the toll is around 10M people.

    Makes one appreciate the whole "flatten the curve" concept. And the ameliorative effects of social distancing, etc.

    Plus lots of wild cards: will warm weather slow/halt the advance, will more effective testing and the resulting more targeted social isolation be effective (see S Korea). Will the secret sauce in Frischs' Big Boy hamburgers, with a chaser of tonic water, prove to be a curative????
    Kitcat:AKA, Sir Spinsalot
    '97 Caterham Super Sprint, 1700 Crossflow-sold
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  3. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitcat View Post
    But, why stop at 3 weeks?
    I'm optimistic the trend will be slowed in 3 weeks or less. Of course I did project the math beyond 3 weeks, and if things don't change soon, May looks frightening.

    But I try to retain a balance of realism and optimism. Fortunately, we still have beer, girls in bikinis, and humor to keep us entertained while we isolate.
    Sean

  4. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean View Post
    . . . Fortunately, we still have beer, girls in bikinis, and humor to keep us entertained while we isolate.

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    Stalker V8, chassis #85

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  5. #115
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
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  6. #116
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by panamericano View Post
    That would definitely cut down on the usage. Unless you let it thaw first.
    2012 CSR 260, registered as a 1966 Super 7

    Still in the massive grin stage. Damn bugs!

  7. #117
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    Feb 2017
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    Based on the Diamond Princess model, I predict around 50,000,000 infected with 500,000 dead but that the overall deaths of 3,000,000/year in the U.S. will not change much meaning that the 500,000 dead from Covid-19 will come from the 600,000 dead from heart disease, 600,000 from cancer, etc.

  8. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean View Post
    Sorry to be so morbid, but I've overheard a lot of debate recently about the 100K-200K projections on USA death toll, and decided to do the math for myself. I almost wish I hadn't.

    I would be careful with all the projections being thrown around. As someone who has to live and breathe statistical models for a career, they are all wrong. There are too many unknown variables which individually are alone enough to make the projected end results materially wrong. The key inputs to the model we are missing? Real count of infected people. There are a lot of people infected who have never been tested and we will never know until we test everyone. A lot of people infected early on just recovered. A lot of people early on did not but died of "other" causes. The exponential growth rates flatten out eventually as the disease finds its low hanging fruit of easy infections.

    I lived in Hong Kong through SARs. That scared me with its 10% death rate. COVID-19 does not. COVID-19 looks to me to have a real death rate much lower than 1% once all the statistical error corrections are factored in. One of my wonderful employees, clearly demonstrating his lack of productivity to his boss, developed his own COVID-19 model intended to calculate an individual person's mortality using all the relevant variables. He was pleased as punch to tell me I have a 1 in 435 chance of dying from COVID-19, paragon of virtuous health that I am. His mortality probability was likely higher given I was quite stressed that day. Its a good statistical quant model too but still excludes a bunch of qualitative factors. Still thats really good betting odds in my insurance world. However, there is a lot we don't know so we should be cautious - social distancing, society lockdowns, etc - make sense to slow things down as not everyone is as good looking and healthy as me.

    Anyway, the bigger issue is not really being discussed intelligently. When do our political leaders decide the cost of economic damage is greater than the population 'cost' (i.e. deaths) of the infections, and so restart the economy before the pandemic is over? My modeled bet that is somewhere around July based on when the second liquidity crunch kicks in for the current lot of businesses operating but impaired. Our strength as a country comes from being tightly integrated and strong as an economy. At some point the loss of strength in the economy becomes a bigger risk to the population (e.g. societal breakdown, critical supply shortage, cash shortages, rising disease/mortality risks from other causes) and so you have to make the call - which is worse? The pandemic is going to continue on into 2021 until we are all infected or a vaccine/cure has been developed and rolled out to 5 billion people. Its analogous to a war decision - you know people are going to die, whats the best way to limit that?

    Ok - time to post some car ads...
    Mike
    2010 Caterham CSR with Cosworth 2.3 Duratec
    2018 Caterham 420R with 2L Duratec 210hp at Donington UK
    1975 BMW CSL Group 4 (restoration - engine and dry sump install time)
    1977 Holden Torana "A9X" (awaiting restoration)
    1985 Holden Commodore SS Group A
    1985 Holden Commodore Group A
    1982 Ferrari 400i
    1965 Ford Mustang Fastback "Holman Moody"
    1992 Ford Escort RS Cosworth WRC (fettling after long period of storage)
    1990 Range Rover 2 door Classic
    and another project car coming....

  9. #119
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    Feb 2009
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    The Frozen Northeast
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    Thanks mike - sounds like you need to take shelter in your garage...

  10. #120
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    Feb 2009
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    NYC
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    Thanks Paul - I am hoping work has calmed down enough next week that I can get to my garage next weekend. Want to work on my last Oz import which just arrived.


    Quote Originally Posted by waltermitty View Post
    Based on the Diamond Princess model...
    Yes but that included bubonic plague from the buffet line.
    Mike
    2010 Caterham CSR with Cosworth 2.3 Duratec
    2018 Caterham 420R with 2L Duratec 210hp at Donington UK
    1975 BMW CSL Group 4 (restoration - engine and dry sump install time)
    1977 Holden Torana "A9X" (awaiting restoration)
    1985 Holden Commodore SS Group A
    1985 Holden Commodore Group A
    1982 Ferrari 400i
    1965 Ford Mustang Fastback "Holman Moody"
    1992 Ford Escort RS Cosworth WRC (fettling after long period of storage)
    1990 Range Rover 2 door Classic
    and another project car coming....

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